UFC 266 Betting Preview

Alexander Volkanovski (c) vs. Brian Ortega

Average odds: 20/31 vs 13/10 (-155 vs +130)

Just because Volkanovski beat Max Holloway twice, and Holloway dominated Ortega, it doesn’t mean Volkanovski will cruise to victory on Saturday night. That said, getting a fighter as dominant as Volkanovski at roughly 2/3 odds is good value listed on Sports Betting Dime. He only needs about a 60% chance to win to make that wager worthwhile, and he’s done just that in 19 straight fights against some the best competition in the world. 

On the feet it feels like Volkanovski is just so hard to break down. If Jose Aldo and Max Holloway struggle with someone, you know they are very good. His ability to use his shorter frame is second to none and he won’t fear Ortega whatsoever. 

Ortega’s newly minted striking will need to be on point here because Volkanovski is by no-means an easy man to get to the ground. If he does manage to engage grappling, Ortega will have a huge chance. The issue here is, we haven’t seen enough of the “new” Ortega. He did look absolutely fantastic, but can he do it again? Can he do it against the best featherweight on the UFC’s roster? 

All-in-all, the odds are just about accurate here. Volkanovski is rightly the favourite and the pick here. 

Valentina Shevchenko (c) vs. Lauren Murphy

Average odds: 4/55 vs 79/10 (-1375 vs +790)

No odds are too long on Valentina Shevchenko here. She is one of the most dominant divisional champions we’ve ever seen in the UFC and will be looking to add another name to her ledger on Saturday. Smart money here would be to play Shevchenko as part of a parlay on the night or to bet her inside the distance. At almost 8/1 there is value on Murphy, but I’m not sure it’s tempting enough.

During her UFC flyweight stint, Shevchenko has been unflappable. Wins by decision, KO and submission have proven her to be as well-rounded any female fighter as we’ve ever seen. Make no mistake, though, it’s her striking that is still here go-to. Shevchenko’s ability to close the distance and land big shots is second to none. Her elbows are a fierce weapon and her combination punching is elite. After that, the clinch is expertly done and her trips from that position, and that ground work that follows, is out of this world.

Murphy is a more meat and potatoes kind of fighter. She too is well-rounded. She can jab, use her length and fire in combos. Her wrestling, defensively and offensively, is good while her toughness might be the one elite factor she truly possesses. The issue here for Murphy is that all of her ability is probably two or three steps behind that of Shevchenko. 

The pick here is undoubtedly Shevchenko and if you’re looking to make some money, I’d argue that Valentina getting the submission is not beyond the realms of possibility at 5/1.

Nick Diaz vs. Robbie Lawler

Average odds: 25/27 vs 25/28 (-108 vs -112)

Two ageing legends in a fight always intrigues when it comes to betting. Does he still have it? Does the other guys still have it? Does either guy still have it? This one is no different and the basically even odds reflect that. 

The difference between Robbie Lawler and Nick Diaz is one guy (Lawler) has been performing, and on a downslide, in the last few years while the other (Diaz) has been basically completely away from the sport for years now.

Diaz’s last fight in the UFC was the infamous bout against the legendary Anderson Silva in 2015. His last UFC win, against another legend BJ Penn, came just a month shy of a decade ago. 

Lawler, conversely, has had an Indian summer in his career during the last ten years – winning the UFC welterweight title against Johny Hendricks in 2014. Two superb title defence followed that before the aforementioned downslide in his career began. Lawler has won just one of his last six fights since then, the last of which happened just over a year ago. 

At their best, these two were very good, but very different fighters. Diaz was a high-pace and high-output striker with a magical jiu-jitsu game while Lawler was a technical power puncher with great takedown defence and an iron chin. 

At this stage, the question is: which guy has most of that left in him? Do you favour the active guy or the one who sat out and avoided all the damage of war? 

For me, I can’t loop past activity. Lawler has been in the gym, a lot more active that Diaz and still on top of modern MMA. The 5-round distance may suit Diaz if he can implement of gameplan but I think the power of Lawler might be just too much for a guy without that real war in so long. The pick here is Lawler straight up.