Top Picks for UFC 300

Alex Pereira v Jamahal Hill

Jamahal Hill has to surprise us here. His best offense is at range, and he hasn’t shown an ability to grapple offensively to win a fight in the UFC (and certainly not for five rounds). Hill has questionable footwork, likes to blow up in weight between fights, and is coming off of a brutal achilles tear against the best leg kicker in the division’s history. So where does he win this fight? It’s not that Jamahal can’t win this fight, it’s that the opportunities won’t be there for him. Even if his defense is as sound as it’s ever been at range, Alex will still thump that lead leg. And even if he didn’t, his lead hand is his most powerful weapon. Good luck closing the range on a guy like that. What a monster, Pereira should be -300 and he’s hardly -110.

Alex Pereira ML -130

Justin Gaethje v Max Holloway

What’s funny is the UFC fanbase was nearly disgusted at this matchup when first announced, and now it feels like Max Holloway is the consensus “most live dog” on this card. I think sometimes as MMA fans we can talk ourselves into being so confident in an underdog that we forget about the guy they’re facing. Justin and Max have had similar trajectories over their last 6 fights but different results. Max lost the title, tried again (and again) but couldn’t get it back, and had non-title bouts in between. It’s not that his recent performances were truly underwhelming, but they were unbecoming of the Jerome we once knew. Justin on the other hand lost those title fights just the same but, has looked EXPONENTIALLY better in his last few. Compare the version of Gaethje who fought Fiziev and Poirier the second time to the pre-2020 version of Justin and you’ll see how much he’s improved. Yes, Max should win the footwork battle, yes I believe he is a more sophisticated boxer; but he’s facing a buzzsaw here in Justin Gaethje. I feel as if I’m forced to pick Gaethje to win here.

Justin Gaethje ML -165

Charles Oliveira v Arman Tsarukyan

I’d be curious to see where Arman wants to hang out on the ground. Charles is dangerous from everywhere, but especially off his back. Arman is of course a tremendous wrestler, but where in that realm is he safe? Overall, I think this is a 50-50 fight, Charles is much more explosive on the feet, but he’s also unpredictable. Unpredictability and power are the two main things that are required to pull off an upset in major MMA. Not only that, but the oddsmakers giving you the best submission artist in UFC history at plus odds? It seems too good to be true (spoiler alert, it is).

Charles Oliveira ML +185

Bo Nickal v Cody Brundage

Bo Nickal to win by submission is at plus odds, that’s extremely generous. Bo Nickal can take down anyone in his division and the division above him, I don’t think I’m going too far out on a limb saying that. This kid is a -2500 favorite (the biggest in UFC history) for a reason. We have seen Brundage get outgrappled by much lesser fighters, it’s a tough ask for him to overcome Bo’s wrestling. I will say that Cody keeps mentioning how Bo has never truly been hit in the octagon/hasn’t faced much adversity in that sense; a fair point. We’ve seen so many alleged phenoms through the years that suddenly become shells of themselves once they get rocked. I will say what’s different about Bo is he’s battle-tested in the sense that he’s had to grind out some matches on the wrestling mat in front of sold-out crowds for years at Penn State. Even still, we all know everything’s different when the fists start flying. Regardless, the most likely outcome is Bo takes him down and submits him early.

Bo Nickal via submission +100

Bobby Green v Jim Miller

I have to say I am a little surprised to see this line as spread out as it is. This is a 50-50 fight, so when I see this line, it brings me to the conclusion that the oddsmakers think Jim is more over the hill than Bobby is. That’s understandable to some degree given that Jim is the elder statesman here, but MMA is all about momentum at the end of the day. Jim Miller hasn’t been finished since he submitted to Charles Oliveira in 2018. Bobby Green’s last three losses have all been by knockout. Not to mention, he took a tremendous amount of punishment in his most recent loss to Jalen Turner. The extra shots as Bobby was already unconscious are exactly the type that change a fighter forever. Is four months at 37 years old enough time to recover from something like that? It’s a decent question, but even still it’s enough to say that Jim Miller should not be a +150 underdog here – I’d argue he should be favored instead.

Jim Miller ML +150