The Size Up: UFC 218 – Max Holloway vs. Jose Aldo II

Main Event: Featherweight Title- Max Holloway (c) vs. José Aldo

Holloway Notable Fights: Anthony Pettis (W), Conor McGregor (L), Ricardo Lamas (W), Jose Aldo (W).

Aldo Notable Fights: Frankie Edgar (2W), Conor McGregor (L), Chad Mendes (2W), Max Holloway (L).

Holloway Stat: He has won his last 11 fights in a row.

Aldo Stat: Despite being a 2-time champion, this is his first title shot.

The Match Up

Initially, the headlining bout for UFC 218 was scheduled to be yet another title shot for Frankie Edgar against Max Holloway in his first title defence. Instead, with Edgar nursing an injury, former champion Jose Aldo steps in for an immediate rematch with the Hawaiian star.

With the division still finding its level after Conor McGregor was stripped of his title and succeeded by a couple of interim champions, this is somewhat of a step backwards toward the old guard rather than forward to the new breed; although the Edgar fight, despite being a fresh match-up, would arguably have been even worse after his two losses to Aldo.

With that said, this is still a fight between undoubtedly the two best men fighting at 145 lbs today and follows a really intriguing meeting of the pair earlier this year.

The Fight

To look ahead to this fight, it’s important to first look back at their first meeting. On that occasion, Holloway ended up winning via 3rd round TKO but that doesn’t really tell the whole story of the fight.

In the opening two rounds, Aldo had the better of it. The Brazilian was winning the jabbing battle, landing plenty of counters and not letting Holloway get his high-output game going. Holloway, though, was landing the more obviously hurtful shots throughout. And in the end that was what told as he dropped Aldo and brutally finished him after a prolonged period of ground and pound.

This time around, both men will want to do better.

Even though he won their first meeting, that goes for Holloway the most. You’d expect him to start faster this time around and not give Aldo the chance to establish his straight back and forward muay thai game. To do that he needs to come at Aldo with brave, varied, continuous attacks like he turned to in the last few minutes of the first fight. Switching stances is always a staple of Holloway’s game which he underutilised in their first fight and could be important this time around. If he can keep Aldo guessing – getting away from the end of his jab – and make this a more disjointed fight, he will be hugely favoured here.

Aldo, on the other hand, wants it more straightforward. First of all, he wants to use his jab again to keep Holloway outside of his space where it’s more about speed, selection and accuracy than force and output. If he does that, then half the job is done.

But against Max Holloway, as the first fight showed, half the job isn’t enough. This time around, Aldo will need to establish his jabbing range and hurt Holloway after that. And there’s a few ways he can do that.

Firstly, he can throw more combinations coming forward and countering like he did last time. Secondly, and most predictably, he can use the magnificent leg kicks he possesses which were basically non-existent last time. And finally, the takedown is always an option for Aldo who should have an advantage on the floor; although I’d say he’s pretty unlikely to use that option.

Overall, this could go a few ways.

Aldo could win the technical battle in the center of the cage and win large periods of the fight, Holloway could come out strong and dominate from the front foot or it could be a combination of the two.

In all three of those scenarios I still think Max Holloway is the more likely to win. And the reason for that is almost all down to an ability to move up through the gears and do that with the confidence of having the bigger punch and better chin.

For Aldo to win, as mentioned above, I really think he needs to hurt Max badly either throughout the fight or in one huge moment. This is MMA and that can definitely happen, but past is prologue here and that’s something he just hasn’t been doing too much recently.

I do think Aldo will win the opening portions of this fight but unless he ups the level of destruction he will get toppled himself. Once Holloway breaks down the jab and gets moving I think he’ll hurt Aldo and finish him once again.

Heavyweight – Francis Ngannou vs. Alistair Overeem

Ngannou Notable Fights: Andrei Arlovski (W), Curtis Blaydes (W), Anthony Hamilton (W)

Overeem Notable Fights: Junior Dos Santos (W), Brock Lesnar (W), Fabricio Werdum (2W, 1L)

Ngannou Stat: He has won every fight in the UFC inside the distance.

Overeem Stat: 50 of his career fights have finished inside the distance.

 

Artwork by John Sheehan