The world famous TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts will be the centre of the mixed martial arts world this Sunday night as the UFC blasts into 2016 with another high-quality line-up of bouts.
And when it comes to high-quality there are only a handful of possible fights in the world that could stack up to the main event on Sunday as TJ Dillashaw defends his UFC bantamweight title against former champion Dominick Cruz.
Cruz, the first ever UFC bantamweight champion, will be returning to action for the first time in over a year with a view to putting the past behind him and proving he is still one of the elite at 135 lbs.
His last fight, a 61 second demolition of Takeya Mizugaki at UFC 178, looked to be the comeback he craved as it ended a spell of three years on the sidelines with knee and groin injuries. In reality, though, it was just a brief interlude between Cruz and the treatment room as he again hurt knee ligaments in the aftermath of a fight which was the first since his belt was stripped for inactivity.
Prior to all the health concerns, Cruz was a truly elite top-tier talent. As well as a UFC champion, the San Diego native had previously held the WEC belt and defeated the likes of Ian McCall, Scott Jorgensen and Joseph Benavidez in the blue cage. His only loss in the WEC, and indeed his career as a whole, came at the hands of Dillashaw’s former mentor Uriah Faber who he later defeated in one of only two UFC fights before his injury problems. Flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson was the other; a clear indication of the spectacular fighter Cruz was, and may still be.
In Cruz’s absence the bantamweight belt was first held by Renan Barao but the Brazilian was quickly usurped by Dillashaw in one of the biggest shocks in MMA history at UFC 173.
The reason Dillashaw’s win was so unexpected was because of the up-and-down, growing nature of his past performances having entered the UFC back in 2011 as a highly rated prospect from ‘The Ultimate Fighter’.
The then-Team Alpha Male man managed to win four fights in a row at one stage but a loss to Raphael Assuncao seemed to have him still a bit outside of the title talk. That was until an injury to Assuncao changed all that and got him right back into it.
In that subsequent title fight Dillashaw beat Barao from the start until he finished him late on and did the same on the second booking of their rematch after the first scheduling saw Joe Soto step in on short notice and lose to Dillashaw when Barao was injured making weight. That win would be the last for Dillashaw as a Team Alpha Male fighter as he moved to Musclepharm gym soon after where he trains in conjunction with the gym of his head coach Duane Ludwig.
Looking back now, the bantamweight division has been, and please excuse my French, a complete clusterfuck since its inception in 2011. But that has all lead to this fight which, in the end, emerged like a rose from the weeds.
The reason this could equate to something so good is because the sums of its part are both individually excellent, or at least have been in the past.
Many people say TJ Dillashaw has moulded himself to be like Dominick Cruz, and in some ways he has, but he is very much a unique fighter. Like Cruz, Dillashaw has phenomenal footwork which, unlike Cruz, he uses to predominantly to go forward and attack.
Dillashaw is a master of hanging around on the outside, switching between stances, hitting a step into range, landing his combination shots and darting out past an opponent. His jab is a wonderful start to set up his striking while his high kicks off both legs and his Manny-Pacquiao-tribute straight left hands are his destructive weapons of choice. And, of course, all that striking is backed up by an NCAA Division 1 all American wrestling pedigree which is akin to a back-up plan these days.
And if Dominick Cruz gets his way, he might just need it.
As mentioned above, a few comparisons have been drawn between Cruz and Dillashaw because of, mainly, their footwork. And I think that’s mostly because Dominick Cruz is somewhat of a yardstick in that realm from which everyone else can be judged because of his early implementation and ability.
In his late WEC/early UFC run (basically the last time we can pull any sizeable date from) Cruz had developed a near perfect strategy for winning fights with detailed mental and physical brilliance.
He used that aforementioned beautiful footwork along with slick, unusual head movement and stance changes to draw his opponents into areas where he could counter them and not be hit himself. He did it, like Dillashaw, by dancing his way in from the outside and, unlike Dillashaw, by leading with a target seeking shot to set up either a bigger one later or a takedown or a location from where he could move away, rather than power and combinations from the get-go.
As our friends at BJJ scout demonstrated wonderfully, Cruz was impossibly hard to hit due to that unusual, low-bobbing head placement and used that fact, along with his quickness and timing, to develop a gameplan which was as close to unbeatable as you can hope for in MMA. Basically, Dominick Cruz had it all.
And I suppose that brings us on to the biggest question for Saturday night.
Does he still have it all?
If you could build a time machine and bring current TJ Dillashaw back to 2011, even with the huge leaps and bounds that have taken place with MMA technique in the mean time, I think Dominick Cruz would probably have more than a good chance of beating him. Dillashaw is by far the harder and more attacking striker with arguably a better wrestling and grappling game but the footwork, defence, timing and speed would all go in Cruz’s favour.
Unfortunately, we don’t have a time machine.
Instead, what we do have is a young champion reaching his prime and another, as of now more accomplished champion, who has had his career blighted for almost 5 years with injuries.
That has to take it toll.
For me, Cruz would need to out-speed, out-time and out-move Dillashaw to win this fight. If he can’t do that, Dillashaw will time his rhythm and the quick attacking hands and the devastating high kicks of the champion will find their spot.
Or, Cruz might defy logic, come out looking like his old self, get that head and those feet moving, bamboozle TJ over five rounds and regain his championship.
For the sake of the fight, I really hope the latter is closer to the truth come Sunday.
But in all honesty, after what he has been through, I’m not sure that’s realistic at this stage for Dominick Cruz.
Miscellaneous Ramblings
The main-event is the obvious draw here on Sunday (yes, Sunday) but fights like Paul Felder vs. Daron Cruickshank, Patrick Côté vs. Ben Saunders and Travis Browne vs. Matt Mitrione should all be smashing bouts in their own way.
Standing out, though, on the undercard is undoubtedly the lightweight meeting of #1 ranked Anthony Pettis and #4 ranked Eddie Alvarez in what is about to become the UFC’s big money division.
A former 155 lbs UFC champion, this will be Pettis’ first return to action since he lost his belt in a crushing defeat to Rafael Dos Anjos in March of last year. And it’ll be a tough task he faces in the shape of former Bellator champion Eddie Alvarez who is looking for establish his rightful place in the division in his third UFC fight following a 1-1 start.
Like that Dos Anjos fight, Pettis will have it put right up to him from the very start – but in a different sort of way. The Philly born 155 pounder is a hard-hitting boxer/wrestler who will exchange hard on the outside and take a shot to get inside to land one of his own strikes or takedowns.
Against Pettis that can either go very well or very badly depending on how clean, hard and often he can hit you before you get your work done.
On his day the older Pettis brother is one of the best strikers in all of mixed martial arts. He can see you coming, lean his body and leave you unconscious on the floor. He can beat you in the pocket, he can submit you or he can come through tough times to eek out a win. But he can also lose, and lose badly
Throw all those ingredients together and you’ve the potion for another unpredictable, uncontrollable octagonal fission.
But I’m here to predict the unpredictable and my prediction is Anthony Pettis. Simply put, I think he’ll be too fast, too elusive and have learned too many lessons from his last fight to not KO an historically very hitable opponent.
FULL FIGHT PICKS
Main Card
T.J. Dillashaw (c) vs. Dominick Cruz – Cruz isn’t the same, Dillashaw finishes him
Anthony Pettis vs. Eddie Alvarez – Pettis makes a big statement
Travis Browne vs. Matt Mitrione – Browne wins and wins early
Ross Pearson vs. Francisco Trinaldo – It’ll probably be a split decision, Pearson.
Prelims
Patrick Côté vs. Ben Saunders – Saunders
Mehdi Baghdad vs. Chris Wade – Baghdad
Tim Boetsch vs. Ed Herman – Herman
Maximo Blanco vs. Luke Sanders – Blanco
Fight Pass Prelims
Paul Felder vs. Daron Cruickshank – Felder
Charles Rosa vs. Kyle Bochniak – Rosa
Ilir Latifi vs. Sean O’Connell – O’Connell
Rob Font vs. Joey Gomez – Font
Francimar Barroso vs. Elvis Mutapcic – Mutapcic
BET OF THE WEEK
This week I’m going with an 11/10 double of Browne and Pettis.
START TIMES
Main Card – 3am On BT Sport 2
Prelims – 1am On BT Sport 2
Fight Pass Prelims – 11pm On UFC Fight Pass
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