The Big Breakdown: Joseph Duffy vs. Dustin Poirier

The famous Point Depot will be the centre of the fighting world this Saturday night as the UFC visits Ireland for the second time in just over a year. Twelve months ago, it was Conor McGregor who headlined the card against Brazilian Diego Brandao but this time around it’s Donegal’s Joseph Duffy who gets top billing as he battles American Dustin Poirier in a very interesting fight all the way around.

The Careers

Now fighting and training out of Tristar gym in Montreal, Canada, Joseph Duffy had been a long-time fixture on the local Irish and UK scene before his transition over to the UFC. Having gone 6-0 to start off his career, the last of which was a submission win over current UFC lightweight Norman Parke, Duffy tried out for “The Ultimate Fighter” reality series but was unsuccessful in the fight to get into the house. Upon his return to local action Duffy submitted Conor McGregor in their now infamous meeting and won three in a row to follow that before losing his one and only career fight to date against Ivan Musardo for the Cage Warriors title. That loss caused Duffy to leave the sport altogether as he successfully completed seven bouts as a boxer before returning to the Cage in August of 2014. Since then Duffy has four stoppages from four fights and earned himself a huge step up in opponent.

That step up will, of course, come this Saturday against a very talented veteran of the UFC and WEC – Dustin Poirier. Hailing from Lafayette, Louisiana Poirier started out his early career training under former UFC fighter Tim Credeur in his home town before moving to Florida’s American Top Team in more recent times. A 7-0 prospect on the local circuit, Poirier faced his first loss in his WEC debut against Danny Castillo but bounced back with wins over the likes of Josh Grispi (in his UFC and featherweight debut) and Max Holloway. A relatively successful stint at 145 lbs saw Poirier become one of the most active fighters in the UFC but three losses in seven fights, the last of which came at the hands of Conor McGregor, saw Poirier move back up to what is arguably his more natural weight of 155 lbs. There, he has two first round knockouts over Carlos Ferreira and Yancy Medeiros in the last six months and comes into this fight in fine form.

The Styles

As someone who as recently as 18 months ago had aspirations as a professional boxer, you might be forgiven for thinking Joseph Duffy is a man who wants to keep this fight standing at all costs. Now, don’t get me wrong, Duffy has an extremely effective stand-up game with brilliant head-movement, unmatched body work, hard kicks and lightening hands which he will prefer to use but he also has no problem mixing it on the floor. A Japanese Ju-Jitsu black-belt, Duffy has nine of his fourteen career wins to date by submission and should be more than comfortable there.

Although, against someone like Dustin Poirier, there is only so much comfort possible. On the floor Poirier is a very astute grappler who loves locking (relatively) unusual chokes (to MMA) like the anaconda, d’arce and Peruvian necktie. Like Duffy, though, Poirier is also a very good fighter all around and throws with serious power. “The Diamond” is an extremely attacking striker who throws hard leg kicks and chin seeking bombs with his hands which, sometimes, can cause him to take a few on his own.

The Fight

When looking at how this fight will play out, it’s hard to see anything other than a battle of hands in the pocket and if it does go south it’ll probably be from a knockdown or a trip if they lock up against the cage. Look for Duffy to come out and try to take the centre of the Octagon early as he establishes his jab and up-and-down head movement. Poirier will be patient at the start but that won’t last long. Expect him to throw a raft of leg kicks and counter with lots of combinations as he tries to time Duffy down the middle.

The more Duffy can make him miss, and counter those mistakes, the more likely he is to win this fight. Expect plenty of fakes from Duffy to draw, the always game, Poirier into throwing more shots than he probably should. If Poirier manages to time those shots, which he is pretty good at, this could turn into a massive battle on the feet which could end early. The further the fight goes, the more you’d probably have to favour Duffy as his technical style, rather than Poirier’s aggressive game, would help with winning a decision from a judge as well as cardio later on.

If I’m calling this, though, I think it finishes in the first three rounds. With a fighter like Dustin Poirier, there is only one way he knows how to fight and that’s at 100%. In front of an insane Irish crowd that’ll either go very well, or very badly. For me, Duffy’s accuracy with his jab, power shots and high kick is a nightmare scenario for someone with a questionable chin like Dustin Poirier. His cure for that is to knock Duffy out early, which makes for an exciting fight, but maybe not a foolproof route to success. Whatever happens, though, expect fireworks.