UFC 167 St. Pierre vs Hendricks: Preview and Prediction

It is both unique and surreal for the conception of a sport which has assumed a global scale to be in living memory for people born in the last quarter century, but such is the case with Mixed Martial Arts.

And, tonight, just over 20 years to the day when Royce Gracie lit the fuse that became the spark which birthed the all-encompassing fire that is the UFC, the promotion returns to its spiritual home, Las Vegas, having undergone a seismic metamorphosis since that historic night in Denver, Colorado.

The MGM Grand Garden Arena will play host to one of the most highly-anticipated title fights in recent memory as Georges St Pierre, arguably the most complete and iconic fighter of the modern era, puts his welterweight crown on the line for a ninth time against Johny Hendricks, a man who has earned his shot the right way, by winning fights.

Georges St Pierre v Johny Hendricks

Since regaining his title from Matt Serra, the champion has described each of his eight subsequent opponents as the most dangerous fighter he has ever faced, as indeed have the spin-doctors, but for very different reasons.

In GSP’s case it is a default setting he adopted after losing his title to Serra back at UFC 69, to never again underestimate a challenger to the title he holds so dearly. While for the latter, it was a cynical attempt to sell fights that they and us, were well aware to be just short of forgone conclusions.

Is Johny Hendricks different? It’s certainly plausible. He has not been installed as the pantomime villain to Rush’s all round good guy, a la Hardy, Koscheck and Diaz, nor is he an imported champion from an inferior organisation with a generously padded record like Jake Shields.

In truth this fight should have happened long before now, but somehow with a 1-1 record Nick Diaz was allowed jump the line-a discussion for another time. Big Rig has won 10 of his 11 UFC bouts, finishing five of those by KO or TKO, with his by now notorious left hand.

Couple this with the fact that he is a world class wrestler; a two-time NCAA Division I national champion at Oklahoma State, no less, and the hype starts to make sense.

So, to retain his title, the champion must overcome a gritty southpaw who hits harder than he does and is a superior wrestler, on paper at least. When put that way, it certainly seems like the belt may not be returning to Montreal, but the thing is, GSP has consistently fought and beat guys who have enjoyed those specific advantages over him, perhaps not simultaneously, but he’s always found a way.

In his last fight. Hendricks, upon realising he wasn’t going to knockout Carlos Condit, resorted to his wrestling and took him to the mat at will, but once there, he was far from spectacular. Actually, Condit probably go the better of those exchanges, by throwing elbows from the bottom and constantly looking for sweeps and submissions.

And here in lies the challenger’s limitations. If he fails to hit a homerun in the early rounds, his path to victory shrinks considerably. Hendricks is not a technical striker by any stretch of the imagination; his stand up, almost exclusively punches, is based on speed and power. It stands to reason then, if you stand in front of him, flatfooted, the likely outcome is the doctor asking you do you know where you are, while invading your nostrils with smelling salts.

GSP has outstanding lateral movement and is comfortable in both the boxing and kick boxing range, so in order to locate his chin, Hendricks will have to pursue him doggedly.

As he does this, he will be met with a piston-like jab, which the champion can fire off behind the relative comfort of his seven inch reach advantage. There is also an array of kicks and the most successful double leg in the game to contend with.

Despite his more impressive resume, the wrestling statistics don’t favour Hendricks, offensively or defensively. St Pierre has only been taken down four times during his seven and a half years with the UFC, and has failed to get just one opponent to ground, during his brief first fight with Matt Serra. Inferior wrestlers than he, including Rick Story, Mike Pierce and Charlie Brenneman have all succeed in putting the challenger on his back.

In terms of BJJ and top game the scales also tip in favour of the champion, despite his lack of aggression in that area. If it goes to the championship rounds, which GSP’s eight previous fights have, Hendricks will enter unchartered territory, and given he cuts 40lbs to make weight, it’s unclear how he will cope.

Admittedly, this will all count for little if one looping left hook finds its mark, but if it doesn’t, the reign of Rush will continue. What could be the bigger question is whether the champion can silence the naysayers and prevail inside the distance.

My Prediction: GSP by unanimous decision.

By Tom Rooney – @oldmanrooney