UFC Fight Night 28: Teixeira vs Bader – Preview and Predictions

Tonight the curtain closes on what has been one of the UFC’s boldest ventures in recent memory- a week long blitz of three stacked cards on two continents. Thus far, they are yet to disappoint and have left the mid-west of America for the southeast of Brazil.

The city of Belo Horizonte and Mineirihno Arena welcomes back the UFC, as one of the light heavyweight division’s most lauded contenders Glover Teixeira, looks to continue his swift rise through the ranks by taking out the talented Ryan Bader. In the co-main event, former Strikeforce middleweight Champion Ronaldo Souza faces off against perennial contender Yushin Okami.

Glover Teixeira v Ryan Bader

Although fighting professionally for over a decade, until recently Glover Teixeira has remained largely unknown to MMA fans around the world. Embroiled in a long standing visa battle to get back into the United States, he was forced to spend a majority of his career fighting in Brazil. However, since resolving the issue, he has made an indelible mark on the masses, by winning his first four UFC bouts. Seen by many as a genuine threat to Jon Jones’ belt, a win over Bader, may be enough to secure him a title shot after the champion and Gustaffson have concluded their business later this month.

Teixeira is a top-notch BJJ practitioner with ferocious punching power, but he is yet to face a wrestler of Bader’s calibre. The Brazilian has Tyson-esque movement when he pursues an opponent on the feet, and is superior to Bader in this department, yet the former All American wrestler has a decent lead left hook and a devastating overhand right, so it would be remiss to take him lightly. If Bader decides to opt for the takedown, he could cause Teixeira problems, as we are yet to see him off his back and it’s hard to know how he would cope with a quality wrestler on top of him. All things being equal, Teixeira has more ways to win.

My Prediction: Teixeira by KO/TKO in round 2

Yushin Okami v Ronaldo Souza

These guys are amongst the middleweight division’s finest grapplers and on paper, at least, there is little separating them in terms of ability. Jacaré is one of the most dangerous and highly decorated submission fighters currently competing in MMA. In his UFC debut, against the tough Chris Camozzi, he also demonstrated a much improved stand up game, before earning a submission win via arm-triangle. Okami has been on a tear since losing to Tim Boetsch, beating Buddy Roberts, Alan Belcher and Hector Lombard, but if he loses tonight, particularly at this stage of his career, he could be forever resigned to the position of gatekeeper. To win, he should utilise his range and pick off Souza with jabs and straight rights, much like he did in the first two rounds against Boetsch. Even if he were to manage to take the Brazilian down, he’d be playing with fire, and with the trajectory of his career hanging in the balance, he has to fight smart.

My Prediction: Okami by unanimous decision.

Joseph Benavidez v Jussier Formiga

For what must be down to his outstanding record in the Brazilian Shooto promotion, Sherdog currently rank Jussier Formiga as the #5 flyweight on the planet, but as evidenced time and again, fighters with huge hype behind them coming into the UFC from inferior organisations, don’t always live up to it.

Formiga is 1-1 in his UFC career to date, having lost his octagon debut to John Dodson by TKO, he bounced back with a unanimous decision win over Chris Cariaso back in May. Based on this, Benavidez probably isn’t climbing the walls with anxiety, after all, the Team Alpha Male fighter’s only two losses have come fighting for world titles at 135 and 125lbs, and both times by razor-thin decisions to Dominic Cruz and Demetrious Johnson, respectively. What Formiga’s record in Brazil does tell us, is that he has a solid ground game, with just under half of his career wins coming by submission. Benavidez, on the other hand, is a quality wrestler, keeps a tremendous pace and his punching power, belies a man his size. Expect the winner to be give the next shot at Mighty Mouse.

My Prediction: Benavidez by KO/TKO in round 2

It would be speculative to give predictions on the first three bouts of the main card, given the dearth of information on some of the fighters involved. Here’s what we do know; in the lightweight division, Brazil’s Francisco Trinaldo, who has won three of his four UFC bouts, takes on promotional debutant and submission artist, Piotr Hallmann of Poland. At 185lbs, Rafael Natal, also of Brazil, with a UFC record of 4-2-1, fight’s Sweden’s Tor Troeng, coming off a first round submission victory of Adam Cella, in his first UFC bout back in April. There is also a flyweight match-up between Russia’s Ali Bagautinov, another octagon first-timer, and Marcos Vinicius.

By Tom Rooney – @oldmanrooney