Only three days after a stellar night of fighting in Indianapolis, tonight the UFC moves on to Milwaukee, Wisconsin for the second of three events scheduled for this week. The BMO Harris Bradley Centre will play host to a rematch almost four years in the making, as Benson Henderson puts his lightweight title on the line against the last man to beat him, Anthony Pettis.
In the co-main event two of the Heavyweight division’s longest standing stalwarts and most lauded submission specialists finally cross paths, with Josh Barnett returning to the octagon after more than decade to take on perennial contender Frank Mir.
Benson Henderson v Anthony Pettis
Anthony Pettis became the last WEC lightweight champion by earning a unanimous decision victory over Benson Henderson in December 2010, he was forever committed to the record books, but the honour seemed almost inconsequential in light of the mind-boggling Showtime Kick that has ensured him a place on every MMA highlight reel for, well, eternity.
Pettis was scheduled to fight the winner of Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard in a unification match, but rematches and injuries meant that never materialised. He would then lose his first UFC fight to Clay Guida, sending him way down the pecking order. Pettis then went on a three fight win streak beating Jeremy Stephens and finishing Joe Lauzon and Donald Cerrone. An injury then put the kibosh on a fight with Jose Aldo for the featherweight title, finally leading is to this point, with another chance to take a belt from Benson Henderson.
The champion has enjoyed a perfect record since coming over from the WEC, winning all seven of his fights, but curiously finishing none of them. When he took the title from Edgar it was far from convincing, the rematch was even less so. He would then soundly beat Nate Diaz, before most recently squeezing by Gilbert Melendez. Subsequently, he is not the most celebrated of UFC champions, but a convincing win over Pettis could go a long way in remedying that.
Pettis presents a completely different challenge to anyone else he has faced during his time in the UFC. The Duke Roufus student is an impressive hybrid of agility and power, capable of things most fighters could only dream of. He also possess a similar dexterity off his back, so the idea of Henderson utilising his superior wrestling skills to pound him out or go for a submission may not be so clear cut.
Henderson is the stronger man, and like his opponent, is a lifelong practitioner of Taekwondo. The champion’s kicks, although not as spectacular, are very effective and he throws powerful straight punches down the pipe and, he’s an All American wrestler to boot.
Henderson may be the slightest bit mentally compromised in his desire to get the Showtime Kick monkey off his back. If so, he is liable to make mistakes he usually wouldn’t, which is all Pettis will need to finish the fight- a very difficult call.
My Prediction: Pettis by TKO in round 3
Frank Mir v Josh Barnett
Mir and Barnett are two of the few remaining heavyweights from the early in the last decade, due to the nomadic nature of Barnett’s career they were never matched, so this one has been a long time in the making. Arguably the two best submission artists in heavyweight history, as well as being some the division’s most polarizing figures. Barnett, is colourful to say the least, and holds on to traits from his time as a pro-wrestler, giving the impression he is a little unbalanced. Nonetheless, he’s a serious proposition with 19 career wins by submission.
The consensus seems to be that this will be a showcasing of grappling at its best, however, when fighters are equally matched in one area, they sometimes avoid engaging each other there. If it does go to the mat, it will most-likely be at Barnett’s behest, as Mir rarely initiates the takedown. Barnett has ferocious ground and pound and a lethal arm-triangle, yet Mir is his most potent off of his back. If it stays standing, Mir is the more complete and technical, while Barnett probably hits harder. Because he looked so lethargic in his last fight against Daniel Cormier, Mir might need this a little more, just to stay relevant.
My Prediction: Mir by unanimous decision.
Chad Mendes v Clay Guida
Perhaps the most unevenly matched fight on the entire card. When Renan Barao won the interim bantamweight title, Chad Mendes became the best fighter in the UFC without a belt. Yes, his title fight with Jose Aldo was about as one-sided as it gets, but he still remains the most prominent threat to his title. Under the tutelage of Duane Ludwig, Medes’ striking has improved exponentially, evidenced by winning all three of his fights since losing to the champion, by first round knockout, and lest not forget he is one the sport’s best wrestlers.
Clay Guida is about as tough and tenacious as they come, and like Frankie Edgar, it appears impossible to separate him from consciousness. His appearance, non-stop motion and affinity for a dust up has made him a fan favourite throughout his career. But in terms of athletic prowess and talent, there is a major disparity between him and his Team Alpha Male opponent. If Guida can lure Mendes into a go- for- broke bawl he could cause the upset, but it’s fairly implausible.
My Prediction: Mendes by unanimous decision.
Brandon Vera v Ben Rothwell
Brandon Vera looks to resurrect his career once more by returning to heavyweight, taking on the inconsistent Ben Rothwell. In the early days of the Zuffa era it looked as though Brandon Vera was set to become one of the sport’s biggest stars, but for whatever reason he failed to live up to his potential and has had a largely disappointing career. In Ben Rothwell, he faces a fighter, who has lost three of his five UFC bouts, that in the past has been guilty of having dreadful conditioning. What Vera gives way in terms in of size and strength, he makes up for in mobility and technical superiority, and he should be able to pick Rothwell apart from a safe distance.
My Prediction: Vera by unanimous decision.
Erik Koch v Dustin Poirier
Potentially fight of the night, between two of the featherweight division’s most exciting strikers. Like Pettis, Erik Koch is a protégé of Duke Roufus, and was on a two-fight win streak until an injury in 2011 side-lined him for the better part of a year and a half, when he returned in January of this year, Riccardo Lamas knocked him out. Tonight is his chance to regain the momentum he lost, but Dustin Poirier is also in desperate need of win after losing his last fight to Cub Swanson, if he wants to stay visible in possibly the most talent rich division. Incidentally, it would be nice to see the winner face Conor McGregor in Dublin, when he is back fighting fit.
My Prediction: Poirier by submission in round 3.
By Tom Rooney – @oldmanrooney
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