The UFC rolls into Seattle for the third time as the Key Arena plays host to possibly not the most stacked or stellar card, but one certainly worth staying up to the slightly less inconvenient time of 1am. Alas, it is the promotion’s last event to be televised on ESPN in the UK and Ireland before the BT Sport and by extension Setanta deals take effect-so enjoy it while it’s still free!
Demetrious Johnson, in his hometown, makes his second title defence against the largely unknown pretender John Moraga, in a fight where high captivation levels are imperative as the flyweight division continues to struggle for relevancy in the eyes of not only the fans, but possibly the promotion, too. In the co-main event, Jake Ellenberger and Rory McDonald go head-to-head to determine-at the very least tacitly -who will be the next No.1 contender in the welterweight division. At the other end of the 170lbs spectrum, Robbie Lawler is paired with Bobby Voelker and, Liz Carmouche looks to end a three-fight losing streak against the young Brazilian Jessica Andrade in the women’s bantamweight division.
Demetrious Johnson v John Moraga
In his two-fight UFC career to date, John Moraga featured in the opening bouts of preliminary cards on Facebook and Fuel TV, usually around the time only the cleaners are in attendance, so it’s hardly surprising that only the most clued in of MMA boffins know who he is. However, he finished both those fights impressively by submission and KO against Chris Cariaso and Ulysses Gomez, respectively. The two-time All American wrestler trains at the MMA Lab in Phoenix, Arizona with Benson Henderson, under the tutelage of John Crouch and Trevor Lally, and is a serious undertaking for the champion.
Moraga has questioned his opponent’s ability to finish fights as well as how his elusive style falls short in filling the entertainment quota. As far as trash talk goes, it’s pretty mild, but may indicate a shortcoming in his mind-set. If Moraga is not completely engaged come Saturday, he will struggle to lay a glove on the sport’s fastest fighter. Johnson stands apart from any other member of the UFC roster with his uncanny appreciation of angles and distance, in addition to his lightning-fast, seamless transitions from stand-up to takedowns. Thus, he would be close to impossible to mimic in training, so telegraphing his movements in the heat of a title-fight will be no mean feat. If Moraga can close the distance, cut-off the ring and nullify the champion’s footwork, he can work for takedowns, then try and beat up Mighty Mouse from the top position, a la Dominic Cruz; easier said than done, of course. The jump of competition and card status may prove too much for Moraga this time round, while champion only continues to get better.
My Prediction: Johnson by unanimous decision.
Jake Ellenberger v Rory McDonald
Easily the most fascinating encounter of the night; these guys are amongst the most talented in the weight class, each with their own unique skill-sets, and to boot, appear to have little time for each other. The glaring difference here, on paper at least, is that Ellenberger has fought a far tougher level of competition-interestingly, they both lost in their Octagon debuts to Carlos Condit. In his last fight Ellenberger knocked out Nate Marquardt, a former No.1 contender in the middleweight division, while McDonald had his arm raised after toying with BJ Penn for three rounds, a natural lightweight, whose best years are long behind him.
There is no doubting McDonald’s talent, but he appears to have bought into his own hype, which is a little much for a guy whose victories have been against lightweights, the aforementioned Penn and Nate Diaz and journeymen, Mike Pyle and Che Mills. Being rendered unconscious is a guaranteed cure for hubris, and outside of Jonny Hendrix, Ellenberger is possibly the hardest hitter in the division. In the stand-up realm Ellenberger will enjoy the advantage in terms of speed and power, Mc Donald, however, is more technically proficient and is a better all-round kickboxer. The ground game may be negated as they seem hell-bent on proving who the better striker is, if the fight does tilt that way they are at an even keel in terms of MMA wrestling and top game. Like Moraga, this may be a step too far, too soon for McDonald, and he could benefit in the long-term from a reality check.
My Prediction: Ellenberger by KO/TKO
Robbie Lawler v Bobby Voelker
Firstly, it’s probably fair to say that Robbie Lawler drew a collective smile from the MMA world when he cleaned Josh Koscheck’s clock at UFC 157, in his first fight for the promotion in almost nine years. He could not have asked for a more ideal return to the sport’s top table after close to a decade of plying his trade in a variety of organisations. Initially, Lawler was scheduled to fight Tarec Saffiedine, but he was forced to pull out due to injury as was his replacement Siyar Bahadurzada, so Bobby Voelker has stepped up on two weeks’ notice. Such paltry preparation time puts Voelker at a major disadvantage, which is compounded by the fact that there is a significant disparity in experience and quality of competition faced, that favours Lawler. It should be some dust-up though, and has the potential to be either fight or knockout of the night.
My Prediction: Lawler by KO
Liz Carmouche v Jessica Andrade
Liz Carmouche is not exactly the ideal foe for your octagon debut; yes, she has lost her last three fights, but two of those have been title fights, the last of which was against world’s premier female fighter. This is the task the UFC have sat for 21-year-old Jessica Andrade, which may mean they have serious faith in her ability or, that their throwing a newbie in with the sharks and are curious to see if she’ll swim. Either way, Carmouche comes out on top here; she needs it more and is far too wily a veteran to let this one slip away.
My Prediction: Liz Carmouche by KO/TKO
By Tom Rooney – @oldmanrooney
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